Adxonist

与VC打过交道的创业家都了解，大部分VC在看项目时，使用的都是一种负面的心态，即挑毛病。在进入PPT的面谈阶段时，VC在听创业家陈述时会留意其中 的各种细节，并根据这些细节中产生的疑问进行提问，如果创业家对关键问题没有特别合理的应对的话，很可能意味着VC将不需要再看Excel就可以否决这个 项目提案。

这种挑毛病的方式对VC行业来说是合理的。VC需要看大量的项目，从中精选，因此分配到每个具体项目的时间就必然会相当有限。与创业家不同，VC的成功并不直接依赖于某一个具体项目的成功，而是基于一个投资组合 的成功，这种成功含有强烈的概率概念。好的创业家会用智慧应对项目可能产生的各种问题，并可能以此为乐，但VC则很可能会因为项目存在某些棘手的问题而决 定不投资，哪怕该项目后来被证明是成功的：为了在一定的时间段内保证投资组合的概率化成功，VC必须懂得根据实际情况进行取舍；在决定投资以前，VC通常 很难像创业家一样站在项目的立场去思考更多的解决方案，他所能做的的确也仅能是挑毛病。

Redeye VC是我常读的一位风险投资家的blog，其近期的一篇叫做《I don’t know》的文（见本文附）与前述有些关联，讲到的也是VC与创业家交谈时，对项目挑毛病的事。两位来访的创业家都经验丰富，并经历过成功：其中一位对VC提出的问题一概圆滑应对；另一位则诚实应对问题，并在某些问题上还承认自己当下并未有特别好的应对措施。显然，本文的作者更青睐后者，因为VC在挑选创业家时，实际上是在挑选项目的合作伙伴，诚信是非常重要的品质。

对此我深有同感，事实上，在我们的具体咨询工作中，也常碰到类似的问题。在与VC面对面之前，我们通常会建议我们帮助的创业家做好足够充分的准备，设想多种可能 的情况，在解说项目时要尽量明确自己的主题：不要让无关的话引 起VC的无关联想，以防止其提出与项目关联不大的问题。而对于与项目直接有关的问题，我们则一概建议创业家据实相告：事实上，项目在实施前或前期实施中， 几乎不可能不存在令人有些怀疑的问题，任何看似的“无懈可击”都像假的（或者说那就是假的），VC甚至比创业家还要更了解这一点；所以坦诚相告并表现出渴望挑战困难的积极心 态往往会得到VC更加信任的一票，而这种信任对于日后的项目合作无疑是至关重要的。

另外，也许有些相关的现象是：我发现在交往的朋友之中，似乎更加优秀的朋友往往也更喜欢说“对不起，这个问题我不知道”，而这也往往会使我对他们的专业技能更加信赖。

附：由于中国的特殊网络原因，使得该文原地址无法被正常打开，故全文转载如下。

I Don’t Know…

from Redeye VC by Josh

Dontknow I don’t know.

Why is it so hard for people (including both entrepreneurs and VCs) to say these three words?

This past week I had two distinctly different meetings with entrepreneurs. They both were successful serial entrepreneurs. Both were exceptionally smart. Both had good ideas.

The first entrepreneur, however, thought that they were expected to know the answer to every question. There wasn’t a question I asked that he didn’t have a definitive answer to. He knew what their pricing model would be. He knew why Google would never compete with them. He knew what their consumer churn would be three years out (despite the fact that they hadn’t launched yet). Whenever I tried to discuss the different risks in the business, he told me why they didn’t exist.

The second entrepreneur, had a different approach. He definitively stated answers when he had them, but when he didn’t know he said so. When asked about his pricing model, he said “well, we’re considering a few different options depending on the outcome of some tests we’re running…” When asked about cost of customer acquisition, he said “well we don’t know what our numbers will be…but here’s our model based on other comparable companies.” When asked about risks, he identified several — and then we discussed how to reduce/eliminate them.

I’ve come to believe that a key investment criteria is founder credibility. And, I think the second entrepreneur was far more credible. No one expects a pre-launch company to have all the answers. (In fact, we get scared if you think you have them). As I’ve previously discussed, rather than have an entrepreneur sell me on why they are 100% correct, I’d much rather understand how they are attacking the different risks facing the business.

And, by the way, the same applies for venture capitalists. I often feel that during company pitches — and board of directors meetings — we’re expected to have an immediate opinion. Should we double our marketing budget? Should I hire this person? Will this strategy work? While it’s OK to offer opinions and thoughts, I think it is also appropriate to acknowledge uncertainty.

Why do people feel pressure to have an answer for every answer?

I don’t know…